MartiniPundit

Random thoughts and insights – always shaken, never stirred

Posts Tagged ‘Polling

On McCain and Polling

with 3 comments

Yesterday, I endorsed John McCain for president. This should have come as no real surprise, even given my antipathy to McCain over the years.

Here’s the surprise: I believe McCain is going to win.

I know, ‘he’s delusional,’ or ‘how many martinis tonight’ (snicker). Answer: one – not nearly enough. 

Now, I’ve been watching the polls. Since the financial ‘meltdown,’ which, arguably McCain handled badly by trying to show leadership and Obama handled well by doing absolutely nothing, the consensus of the polls has been a national lead of around 5 points for Obama. Ann Coulter recently had a piece which talked about historical oversampling of democrats. Much of this I remember (although not 1992 when, I admit, I was in denial). This mirrors my own feeling that the pollsters are overweighting democrats. Their methodologies, such as they’re willing to admit, seem, flawed. In the last few weeks, I even read of one pollster who didn’t receive the results he expected so he massaged his assumptions until he did. Yeah, that’s scientific.

So, my own unscientific poll.

It started innocently enough. One of my friends (in her late twenties) who is a democrat suddenly announced to me she was no longer supporting Obama and was going to vote for McCain. Her stated reason was Obama’s vote in favor of the new FISA bill. It snowballed from there. To be sure, not all of my friends, acquaintances, and relatives who are democrats but a lot.

Some more examples: my co-workers who are Jewish have all stated that they will vote for McCain. Hillary had their votes until Obama won the primary. A friend who has just graduated law school and who was a pie-in-the-sky lefty is now voting McCain (mugged by the need to get a job). Another, voting for racist reasons alas, another voting his wallet, another voting her wallet, another voting for national security, and another voting because he doesn’t think Obama has the experience. All of these are democrats in Massachusetts.

Then there is family in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Blue-collar democrats all. All voting for McCain.

There is my cousin – a lawyer in DC and a democrat – voting for McCain.

There is a friend in Ohio, true, something of an independent, but voting for McCain where democrats got his vote in the past. There are also others in Missouri and North Carolina. 

In short, I do not know a single republican or true independent who is voting for Obama. I know a lot of democrats who are voting for McCain.

It could be that my own personal sample is skewed in some unscientific way – in fact, I’d make book it is. But no more so than the MSM polls.

We’re in for a long night tomorrow I expect, but at the end, I also expect McCain will have pulled it out.

Written by martinipundit

November 3, 2008 at 9:23 pm

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