Random thoughts and insights – always shaken, never stirred

Sabato’s Prediction

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By now, I’m sure most readers have learned of Larry Sabato’s prognostication for the 2010 election.

Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a “net” number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama’s Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.

In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react).

Worth reading the whole thing. My principal reason for noting this post is I think it worthy of comment for its conservatism. A lot of people are waking up to Scott Brown’s victory and suddenly finding it significant nine months later. Some of us thought it significant at the time. That this is now a conservative prediction is amazing.

I’m adding Sabato’s blog to the blogroll. He seems a smooth sippin’ drink to me.


Written by martinipundit

September 5, 2010 at 11:42 pm

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