Random thoughts and insights – always shaken, never stirred

Mark Steyn on Election Day

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Mark Steyn’s election day column is here.

Well, it’s the big day, when Campaign 2004 moves from its electoral round into the litigation round. For John Kerry to become President, he has to win 270 of the 538 electoral-college votes. For George W Bush, it’s not quite that simple: he’s got to win big enough to be outside the margin of lawyer.

For example, if he gets 270 and wins New Hampshire’s four electoral-college votes very narrowly, the Democrats will sue to flip the state into their column and hand the election to Kerry. If Bush gets 288 or under, the Dems will sue to flip Ohio into the Kerry column. If Bush gets 295 or under, they’ll sue to flip Florida. In other words, Bush has to be up over 300 in order to stand a chance of shaking off the Democratic Party’s chad-chasers.

I think he can do it. I predicted in The Spectator last week that he’d win 315 electoral-college votes, and I’m sticking by that. But even at 315 the Kerry camp might think it worth contesting Ohio and Florida. Once you’ve accepted that you can sue your way round one state, as in 2000, it’s not such a stretch to sue in two.

Funny, he doesn’t seem to think that Bush would sue to overturn the results of the election. I wonder why that is?


Written by martinipundit

November 2, 2004 at 10:43 am

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